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For a brief period, Trump appeared to take a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "severe ramifications" last August if Putin continued obstructing peace talks, the former president eventually introduced considerable penalties on Russia's primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially affected Putin's capacity to finance his aggression in the region.

However, via his newly presented detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European involvement, Trump has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Benefiting Invasion

This plan would effectively reward Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal actually undermine that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his business past, Trump persists to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses critically compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open route to Kyiv in case he later decide to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable future hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the plan imposes no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, the plan asserts: "Any extremist doctrine and practices must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump sets no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar agreements in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "strong unified military response" in case Russia restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details include unclear to troubling. The plan would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his diminished forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

An additional supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any future "significant, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against future hostilities – the success of the side agreement would rely on the dedication of Western powers, like Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not